Extinction or Explosion in a Galton-Watson Branching Process: Testing or Prediction?
نویسندگان
چکیده
In a frequently cited paper, Becker (1974) asked whether data from a “mortal” (= terminated) smallpox outbreak better fit a subcritical or semicritical Galton-Watson branching process. We revisit this question using standard hypothesis-testing methods and reach a somewhat di↵erent conclusion than he did. For a non-terminated process, the related problem of predicting extinction or explosion also can be formulated in a testing framework to which standard Neyman-Pearson theory applies. ⇤[email protected]. Research supported in part by National Science Foundation Grant DMS-1106862. †[email protected]. Research supported in part by U.S. Department of Defense Grant H98230-10-C-0263/0000 P0004.
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